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Conditional Probability With Independence

Hardmathematics

Two players alternately roll a fair die starting with the first player, and whoever first rolls a six wins the game; what is the probability that the player who starts first eventually wins?

Select the correct option:

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About This Question

Subject
mathematics
Chapter
statistics and probability
Topic
conditional probability with independence
Difficulty
Hard
Year
2025
Tags
advanced-calculus-drillgeometric-series-probabilityindependent-trialsturn-based-gameinfinite-series

Solution

Correct Answer:

An alternating-turns game with a fixed per-trial success probability produces a geometric series for each player's winning chance, since the first player wins on turn 1, 3, 5, and so on. This infinite-series probability model is a challenging JEE Advanced favourite. The probability of rolling a six on any throw is 1/6 and of not rolling a six is 5/6. The first player wins immediately with probability 1/6, or if both miss once (probability (5/6)² = 25/36) and then the first player wins from the identical restarted situation. So if p is the first player's win probability, p = 1/6 + (25/36)p. Solving, p(1 − 25/36) = 1/6, so p(11/36) = 1/6, giving p = (1/6)(36/11) = 6/11. Option 5/11 is the second player's complementary probability. Option 1/2 wrongly assumes symmetry between players. Option 1/6 gives only the first-throw win. The method sums the geometric series Σ(5/6)^{2k}(1/6) = (1/6)/(1 − 25/36) = 6/11, which agrees exactly with the recursive self-similarity argument and demonstrates that the two standard techniques, infinite-series summation and one-step recursion, are fully equivalent here. The game terminates with probability one because the chance of both players missing forever is zero. Plausibility check: 6/11 exceeds 1/2, correctly reflecting the advantage held by whoever rolls first, and 6/11 + 5/11 = 1, confirming that the two win probabilities partition certainty with no leftover probability for an unending game.

This hard difficulty mathematics question is from the chapter statistics and probability, covering the topic of conditional probability with independence. It appeared in the 2025 exam.

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