Conditional Probability And Independence
Suppose events A and B satisfy P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/3, and the conditional probability P(A given B) equals 1/2 in some experiment; decide whether the two events are independent.
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About This Question
- Subject
- mathematics
- Chapter
- statistics and probability
- Topic
- conditional probability and independence
- Difficulty
- Medium
- Year
- 2025
Solution
Correct Answer:
TheyareindependentbecauseP(AgivenB)equalsP(A)
Two events are independent precisely when knowledge of one does not change the probability of the other, formally when P(A | B) = P(A), equivalently P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B). This independence test is a conceptual favourite at JEE Advanced. Here P(A | B) = 1/2 is given and P(A) = 1/2 as well, so the conditioning event B leaves A's probability unchanged, satisfying the definition of independence exactly. We may cross-check: P(A ∩ B) = P(A | B)P(B) = (1/2)(1/3) = 1/6, while P(A)P(B) = (1/2)(1/3) = 1/6, confirming the product rule. The dependent-because-less option misreads the equality as an inequality. The mutually-exclusive option is wrong since mutual exclusivity would force P(A ∩ B) = 0, contradicting 1/6. The final option invokes an irrelevant comparison of P(A) and P(B), which has nothing to do with independence. The governing criterion is the equality P(A | B) = P(A), and it is essential to distinguish this from mutual exclusivity, which is in fact the opposite extreme of strong dependence. Plausibility check: independence is consistent here because P(A ∩ B) = 1/6 is strictly positive yet exactly equals the product of the marginals, simultaneously ruling out both mutual exclusivity, which would require a zero intersection, and dependence, which would require the conditional and unconditional probabilities to differ.
This medium difficulty mathematics question is from the chapter statistics and probability, covering the topic of conditional probability and independence. It appeared in the 2025 exam.
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