Binomial Distribution
In a binomial setting where a marksman hits a target with probability 1/4 on each independent shot, he fires four shots in total; what is the probability that he hits the target at least once?
Select the correct option:
Solution
175/256
An "at least once" question in repeated independent trials is most efficiently solved by the complement, since P(at least one hit) = 1 − P(no hits), avoiding summation over many cases. This complement strategy within the binomial model is a routine JEE Advanced shortcut. Each shot misses with probability 1 − 1/4 = 3/4, and the four shots are independent, so the probability of missing all four is (3/4)⁴ = 81/256. Therefore the probability of at least one hit is 1 − 81/256 = (256 − 81)/256 = 175/256. Option 81/256 reports the no-hit probability rather than its complement. Option 1/4 gives only a single-shot hit chance. Option 27/64 = (3/4)³ uses three shots instead of four. The reasoning combines independence, which lets the four miss probabilities multiply directly, with the complement rule for the at-least-one event; computing it the long way would mean adding the binomial probabilities of exactly one, two, three, and four hits, a far more laborious route that gives the same 175/256. This is precisely why the complement is the standard shortcut whenever the phrase at least one appears. Plausibility check: 175/256 ≈ 0.684 is a valid probability comfortably greater than the single-shot 1/4, which is expected since four independent chances substantially raise the cumulative likelihood of at least one success.
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About This Question
- Subject
- mathematics
- Chapter
- statistics and probability
- Topic
- binomial distribution
- Difficulty
- Medium
- Year
- 2025
Solution
Correct Answer:
175/256
An "at least once" question in repeated independent trials is most efficiently solved by the complement, since P(at least one hit) = 1 − P(no hits), avoiding summation over many cases. This complement strategy within the binomial model is a routine JEE Advanced shortcut. Each shot misses with probability 1 − 1/4 = 3/4, and the four shots are independent, so the probability of missing all four is (3/4)⁴ = 81/256. Therefore the probability of at least one hit is 1 − 81/256 = (256 − 81)/256 = 175/256. Option 81/256 reports the no-hit probability rather than its complement. Option 1/4 gives only a single-shot hit chance. Option 27/64 = (3/4)³ uses three shots instead of four. The reasoning combines independence, which lets the four miss probabilities multiply directly, with the complement rule for the at-least-one event; computing it the long way would mean adding the binomial probabilities of exactly one, two, three, and four hits, a far more laborious route that gives the same 175/256. This is precisely why the complement is the standard shortcut whenever the phrase at least one appears. Plausibility check: 175/256 ≈ 0.684 is a valid probability comfortably greater than the single-shot 1/4, which is expected since four independent chances substantially raise the cumulative likelihood of at least one success.
This medium difficulty mathematics question is from the chapter statistics and probability, covering the topic of binomial distribution. It appeared in the 2025 exam.
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